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Forecasting Telecoms Demand Using Primary Market Research

Market research among potential users is an important tool to gauge demand for new telecoms products and services. The results from market research surveys can be used to estimate the potential demand. However, the conclusions drawn as to the potential demand ceiling are very much influenced by questionnaire design and interpretation of the survey data. Best results can be achieved by:

• not defining the product or service too narrowly;
• expressing the functionality and benefits of new services in terms of an experience respondents can relate too;
• not prescribing prices that may lead to unduly negative reactions;
• and instead asking respondents how much they would be willing to pay.

Surveys only provide the raw material for a forecast. If the sample size is sufficiently large potential adoption rates can be analysed by significant variables such as age, which provides additional information about the likely diffusion pattern among the population. Segment based data can be interpreted and combined with empirical evidence relating to the take-off other technology products to further enhance the reliability of the forecast. Survey data and empirical data is only one input into the forecasting process. In particular long-term forecasts must incorporate a considerable amount of judgement.

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Title: Author: Date:	Forcasting Telecoms Demand Using Primary Market Research Stefan Zehle 11/2003

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